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Prediction for CME (2024-01-05T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-05T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28485/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME in the SE with the source is likely a significant eruption just SE of AR 3536 (N06E23) seen in AIA and SUVI 304 starting at 2024-01-05T00:20Z, with an EUV wave seen in AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-08T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-05T02:02Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 393
Longitude (deg): 031E
Latitude (deg): 35S
Half-angular width (deg):  31

Notes: Liftoff evident on AIA304 imagery and GONG imagery. Also evidence of dimming on AIA211. Ejected from north, but southward directed. MOSWOC Enlil felt to be erroneously fast and early with intervening fast wind from CH89, lowering confidence in this CME and perhaps implying later arrival.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence on behalf of Richard Stone

Lead Time: 40.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-01-07T01:07Z

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